Steady Volume Growth Without Peak Season Pressure
Global air cargo demand increased 6% year over year in October, marking seven consecutive months of growth, according to market intelligence platform Xeneta in a report cited by Supply Chain Dive. Despite steady volume gains, expectations for a typical late-year peak season surge are diminishing. Xeneta noted that traditional indicators like sudden capacity strain, skyrocketing charter rates, or drastic price spikes remain absent across major trade lanes.
Global air cargo spot rates averaged $3.11 per kilogram in October, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase and a 4% rise month over month. Flat year-over-year global capacity growth continues to keep spot rates elevated, while the global dynamic load factor reached 63%, up two percentage points.
Corridor Rates Driven by AI Cargo and Winter Schedules
Rate movements varied across key global corridors. As airlines shifted to winter flight schedules, spot rates on the Transatlantic westbound route from Europe to North America increased 10% to $2.31 per kilogram. Tighter capacity on this corridor is forcing forwarders to accept higher carrier rate quotes during contract tenders.
On Transpacific lanes, demand remained buoyed by shipments tied to artificial intelligence hardware, pushing Asia Pacific to North America chargeable weight up 15% year over year in October. Spot rates from Northeast Asia to North America rose 4% month over month to $6.21 per kilogram, while rates from Southeast Asia to North America reached $6.34 per kilogram, up 3% month over month.
Shippers Delay Negotiations Amid Rate Uncertainty
Rather than settling long-term deals in the fourth quarter, many shippers are postponing contract negotiations to finish in the first or second quarter of 2027. Xeneta expects air freight rates to soften in 2027 as supply and demand rebalance across key markets.
Freight forwarders face difficulties pricing 12-month fixed agreements without factoring in heavy risk premiums. Because operational disruptions and capacity shifts have become frequent, shippers and forwarders are navigating heightened volatility during current contract cycles.
